Prediction of even and odd sunspot cycles

Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well described by a simple parameterized mathematical expression. We find that the parameters describing even sunspot cycles can be predicted quite accurately using the sunspot number 41 months prior to sunspot minimum as a precursor. We find that the parameters of the odd cycles can be best predicted with maximum geomagnetic aa index close to fall equinox within a 3-year window preceding the sunspot minimum. We use the found precursors to predict all previous sunspot cycles and evaluate the performance with a cross-validation methodology, which indicates that each past cycle is very accurately predicted. For the coming sunspot cycle 25 we predict an amplitude of 171 +/- 23 and the end of the cycle in September 2029 +/- 1.9 years. We are also able to make a rough prediction for cycle 26 based on the predicted cycle 25. While the uncertainty for the cycle amplitude is large we estimate that the cycle 26 will most likely be stronger than cycle 25. These results suggest an increasing trend in solar activity for the next decades.Comment: This manuscript has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (JSWSC). An earlier version of this manuscript has been posted as a pre-print in Research Square https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-2377445/v

Undulate : A framework for data-driven software engineering enabling soft computing

Context. Especially web-facing software systems enable the collection of usage data at a massive scale. At the same time, the scale and scope of software processes have grown substantively. Automated tools are needed to increase the speed and quality of controlling software processes. The usage data has great potential as a driver for software processes. However, research still lacks constructs for collecting, refining and utilising usage data in controlling software processes.Objective. The objective of this paper is to introduce a framework for data-driven software engineering. The UNDULATE framework covers generating, collecting and utilising usage data from software processes and business processes supported by the software produced. In addition, we define the concepts and process of extreme continuous experimentation as an exemplar of a software engineering process.Method. We derive requirements for the framework from the research literature, with a focus on papers inspired by practical problems. In addition, we apply a multilevel modelling language to describe the concepts related to extreme continuous experimentation.Results. We introduce the UNDULATE framework and give requirements and provide an overview of the processes of collecting usage data, augmenting it with additional dimensional data, aggregating the data along the dimensions and computing different metrics based on the data and other metrics.Conclusions. The paper represents significant steps inspired by previous research and practical insight towards standardised processes for data-driven software engineering, enabling the application of soft computing and other methods based on artificial intelligence.Peer reviewe

A Conceptual Modelling Approach to Software Variability

Variability is the ability of a system to be efficiently extended, changed, customised or configured for use in a particular context. Increasing amounts of variability are required of software systems. The number of possible variants of a software system may become very large, essentially infinite. Efficient methods for modelling and reasoning about software variability are needed and numerous such languages have been developed. Most of these languages either lack a solid conceptual foundation or a rigorous formal semantics, or both. In this dissertation, three novel software variability modelling languages, KOALISH, FORFAMEL and KUMBANG, which synthesises KOALISH and FORFAMEL, are developed. The languages are based on concepts found relevant to modelling software variability in scientific literature and practice, namely features and software architecture. They synthesise and clarify the concepts defined in a number of previous languages. Ideas first developed in product configuration research for modelling variability in non-software products are elaborated and integrated into the languages. A formal semantics is given for the languages by translation to weight constraint rule language (WCRL). One of the goals of this dissertation is to enable the representation of software variability knowledge at different levels of abstraction in a uniform manner, preferably using an existing conceptual modelling language with a formal semantics. Unfortunately, it turns out that no existing language meets these requirements. Consequently, a novel conceptual modelling language, NIVEL, with the necessary capabilities is developed in this dissertation. The modelling concepts of NIVEL are not based on software variability. Consequently, NIVEL can be applied in domains other than software variability and is hence generic and contributes to the theory of conceptual modelling. A formal semantics enabling automated, decidable reasoning is given for NIVEL by translation to WCRL. NIVEL is used to give an alternative definition of KUMBANG. The alternative definition is more compact and easily understandable than the original one. Major parts of the semantics of KUMBANG are captured by the semantics of NIVEL. The definition of KUMBANG in terms of a generic modelling language also brings software variability modelling closer to other forms of modelling, thus making software variability modelling less of an isolated discipline

Avoin korkeakoulu opiskelijoiden arvioimana

With the views held by students as the basis, the article looks into the functionality of the Open University as system of study, from the aspect of vocational, degree-oriented, and avocational studies. In addition, it looks at the Open University’s role as an institution offering general education, at the effect of the system of study on the realization of educational and social equality, and at the regional significance of the Open University. The results indicate that degree-studies are being used more and more as vocational further education. The problem is that studies are often seen as representing a mere formal vocational further qualification. Ali in all, it is assumed that the Open University is fairly well able to fulfil the expectations of students regarding the system of study.Artikkeli tarkastelee opiskelijoiden mielipiteiden pohjalta avoimen korkeakoulun toimivuutta opintojärjestelmänä, ammatillisen, tutkintotavoitteisen ja harrastuspainotteisen opiskelun näkökulmista. Lisäksi käsitellään avoimen korkeakoulun merkitystä yleissivistävän koulutuksen antajana, opintojärjestelmän vaikutusta koulutuksellisen tai yhteiskunnallisen tasa-arvon toteutumiseen ja avoimen korkeakoulun alueellista merkitystä. Tulosten mukaan arvosanaopetusta käytetään yhä enemmän ammatillisena täydennyskoulutuksena. Ongelmana on, että opinnot koetaan usein pelkäksi muodolliseksi ammatilliseksi lisäpätevöitymiseksi. Myös opintojen tutkintotavoitteisuus ja niiden merkitys osana muuta opiskelua on huomattava. Kokonaisuudessaan voi arvioida, että avoin korkeakoulu pystyy verraten hyvin täyttämään opiskelijoiden opintojärjestelmään kohdistuneet odotukset. Artikkeli perustuu Tampereen yliopistossa tehtyyn aikuiskasvatuksen syventävien opintojen tutkielmaan

Dependence of the global dayside reconnection rate on interplanetary magnetic field By and the earth’s dipole tilt

In the recent years, significant attention has been given to the combined effect of Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) duskward component (By) and dipole tilt on the global magnetosphere-ionosphere system response. Numerous studies have pointed out that when the Earth’s magnetic dipole is tilted away from the Sun (negative dipole tilt during northern winter), and IMF has a positive By component, the effects on ionospheric currents, particle precipitation, ionospheric convection, and average size of the auroral oval, is significantly more enhanced, compared to when IMF By is negative. Furthermore, this IMF By polarity effect reverses when Earth’s dipole is tilted in the opposite direction. The underlying cause has remained unclear. Our analysis shows that substorms tend to be stronger during the same IMF By and dipole tilt polarity combination. Taken together with earlier results showing also more frequent substorms during the same conditions, our observations suggests that when IMF By and dipole tilt have opposite signs, there is a more efficient global dayside reconnection rate. We also show analysis of the occurrence frequency of periods of Steady Magnetospheric Convection, substorm onset latitude, and the isotropic boundary of proton precipitation, that are all consistent with our conclusion that the combination of IMF By and dipole tilt polarity affect the global dayside reconnection rate.publishedVersio

Using mutual information to investigate non-linear correlation between AE index, ULF Pc5 wave activity and electron precipitation

In this study, we use mutual information from information theory to investigate non-linear correlation between geomagnetic activity indicated by auroral electrojet (AE) index with both the global ultra low frequency (ULF) Pc5 wave power and medium energy (>= 30 keV) electron precipitation at the central outer radiation belt. To investigate the energy and magnetic local time (MLT) dependence of the non-linearity, we calculate the mutual information and Pearson correlation coefficient separately for three different energy ranges (30-100 keV, 100-300 keV and >= 300 keV) and four different MLT sectors (0-6, 6-12, 12-18, 18-24). We compare results from 2 years 2004 and 2007 representing geomagnetically more active and less active years, respectively. The correlation analysis between the AE index and electron precipitation shows a clear MLT and energy dependence in both active and quiet conditions. In the two lowest energy ranges of the medium energy electrons (30-100 keV and 100-300 keV) both non-linear correlation and Pearson correlation indicate strong dependence with the AE index in the dawn sector. The linear dependence indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient decreases from dawn to dusk while the change in the non-linear correlation is smaller indicating an increase in the non-linearity from dawn to dusk. The non-linearity between the AE index and electron precipitation is larger at all MLT sectors except MLTs 6-12 during geomagnetically more active year when larger amount of the activity is driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) compared to lower activity year with high speed stream (HSS) and stream interaction region (SIR) driven activity. These results indicate that the processes leading to electron precipitation become more non-linear in the dusk and during geomagnetically more active times when the activity is driven by ICMEs. The non-linearity between the AE index and global ULF Pc5 activity is relatively low and seems not to be affected by the difference in the geomagnetic activity during the 2 years studied.Peer reviewe

Participative development for improving nuclear safety : results and implications of three methods in nuclear maintenance work

This research report summarizes the results and implications of three participative methods, which we applied and evaluated in nuclear maintenance in the PARSA project in 2019–2021. We aimed to assess whether these methods are applicable and whether they add value to participative orientation in nuclear safety improvement. The nuclear industry is highly proceduralized and technology intensive, which sets special demands for bottom-up and human-centred approaches. The changes facing the nuclear industry are ageing personnel and technology, modernization, and new ways of organizing work in nuclear power plants. This situation emphasizes the relevance of participative development (PD). New ways to commit and motivate personnel, and to develop competence, work practices and new learning through human contribution are necessary to maintain high safety levels in the nuclear domain. As an approach, PD is embedded in the art and practice of human factors (HF), which is regarded as mandatory in the nuclear energy industry. HF strives towards improved system performance, safety, and well-being. The three methods evaluated in the PARSA project were video-based reflection of workplace learning, collaborative work process analysis of maintenance work phases, and nuclear-specific human performance (HU) tools, especially pre-job briefings and post-job review. These methods are considered to improve learning and work practices, work process knowledge and mutual co-operation across organizational levels and units. This research report introduces the aims and needs of three evaluated methods as approaches to PD in the nuclear energy industry and summarizes the findings and the implications of our project. The final results of the PARSA project will be published in the end of 2022. PARSA is funded by the SAFIR2022 research programme (2019–2022), funded by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland, and organized by VTT, the Technical Research Centre of Finland